Bayes theorem

2023-10-26 by Unokay Comics

Tags: Psychology, Eagles

The dangers of an over-reliance on bayesian inference.

Panel 1: Two figures are walking in a grassy landscape. The grass is brown and the sky is blue with no clouds. A large bird with outstretched wings is silhouetted against the sky. One of the people points up and says: Look! A sea eagle!
Panel 2: The bird has now flown over. The other person says: That's not a sea eagle!
Panel 3: The second person continues: You're ignoring that it's much more likely that you'd see a buzzard. So it was probably a buzzard. First person: I suppose you're right.
Panel 4: The pair walk on and in the foreground is a brown signpost which says: Sea eagle sanctuary 1½ The first person continues: But I'm sure it was a dinosaur footprint I saw on the beach!
This is a four panel cartoon. Panel 1: Two figures are walking in a grassy landscape. The grass is brown and the sky is blue with no clouds. A large bird with outstretched wings is silhouetted against the sky. One of the people points up and says: Look! A sea eagle! Panel 2: The bird has now flown over. The other person says: That's not a sea eagle! Panel 3: The second person continues: You're ignoring that it's much more likely that you'd see a buzzard. So it was probably a buzzard. First person: I suppose you're right. Panel 4: The pair walk on and in the foreground is a brown signpost which says: Sea eagle sanctuary 1½ The first person continues: But I'm sure it was a dinosaur footprint I saw on the beach! The cartoon is signed unokay.com 2023 D35

Link to this cartoon: https://unokay.com/bayes-theorem

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